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A possible unintended consequence of polling

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We often hear about the effects that polling can have on the population.  How it can help drive the narrative if the results are sufficiently skewed in one direction (see: Rasmussen; Scott Brown).  How it can be used to sway the opinions of the electorate if the questions are not worded carefully (see pretty much every poll showing the populace against health care reform).  If people don't have a basic understanding of polling, and a poll is taken out of context there can be another consequence entirely: misinforming them of basic facts.

Polling to find out how much people know about things is both interesting and useful.  For example, see this 2005 Gallup poll that discovered 4 in 10 Americans believe in ESP, 1 in 4 believe in astrology (AAARRRGGGHHH!!), and 1 in 5 believe in witches (we just had one run for Senate IIRC and the Romanian government thinks they are real enough to tax them).  These facts are interesting, amusing, and most clearly an indictment of science education in this country.  These polls are important because they emphasize a weakness in our education system that needs adjusting.

However, when not presented in the proper context (and with poor understanding of polling and statistics), these polls can actually misinform the public of basic knowledge.  I was thinking about this when taking an informal poll on my Nintendo Wii's Everybody Votes program.  The question was "Who is the only US president granted a patent?  Abraham Lincoln or Thomas Jefferson?".  Normally I refuse to participate in polls that can be easily answered with a wikipedia search, but I was tired and guessed Thomas Jefferson.  I have since learned that the correct answer was Abraham Lincoln.  Yes, I admit that I didn't know the answer.  Not surprisingly I guess, when the results came back they were heavily skewed in Jefferson's favor (59.6% chose him).  I guess this shows that as a nation we are not smarter than a 5th grader, but I do not believe that an encyclopedic knowledge of esoteric history trivia is important to be a good citizen, nor do I think this result is an indictment of the state of American history teaching in the US.  Not as much as this Marist poll that found 1 in 4 American's did not know we declared our independence from England!

This poll in and of itself is relatively innocuous, however, the results were presented without any context, or the correct answer.  It merely had the results of the poll and the breakdown by state (only Puerto Rico got it right but the states south of the Mason Dixon performed much better than the northern states!).  I can see a situation where a person could look at the result and figure that the answer to the question must be Jefferson since he had a 20% lead over Lincoln.  That result doesn't really concern me, considering, as I said above, that fact is rather esoteric.

However, when polling about information that has a correct answer, it is important that the reporting of the results includes the correct answer.  Take for example this Rasmussen poll that shows only 40% of Americans believe that global climate change is human caused.  Nowhere in the results as presented to the media is it made clear that the scientific consensus is quite conclusive that humans are significantly contributing to the recent warming.  My mother-in-law recently told me she didn't believe in climate change (an exasperating moment to be sure, but she is a Fox News viewer and avid fan of Glenn Beck so I am not surprised).  When presented with the evidence that she was wrong her evidence that I was wrong was that polling has shown Americans don't believe in global climate change.

I tried to explain to her that beliefs are irrelevant to science, and the only thing that matters is the data.  But in her mind she was right because she was in the majority opinion.  This is where polling can mislead about science.  It is the pollsters responsibility to report the correct answer when reporting on matters of science and facts.  

I have included a poll that has a correct answer, but please answer without looking it up because I am curious how many people know the answer.

I will leave you with a quote from Business Insider that uses the results of an opinion poll about global climate change as evidence that there is no anthropogenic warming.

Just a few years ago, Americans reached a consensus that the earth had warmed over the past few decades. These days, however, far fewer Americans believe in global warming.

A Pew poll shows that belief in global warming dropped to 57 percent from 77 percent.

Of course, this will drive the Warmers absolutely crazy. They claim that the scientific evidence for warming has increased over this period. So an increase in dissent from the expert's position on warming is bound to birth anguish.


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